Automotive Fuel Economy

How Far Can We Go?

Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 9780309045308
eISBN Pdf: 9780309574952
Place of publication: United States
Year of digital publication: 1992
Month: January
Pages: 280
DDC: 388
Language: English

Caption

This volume presents realistic estimates for the level of fuel economy that is achievable in the next decade for cars and light trucks made in the United States and Canada.

A source of objective and comprehensive information on the topic, this book takes into account real-world factors such as the financial conditions in the automotive industry, costs and benefits to consumers, and marketability of high-efficiency vehicles.

The committee is composed of experts from the fields of science, technology, finance, and regulation and offers practical evaluations of technological improvements that could contribute to increased fuel efficiency. The volume also examines potential barriers to improvement, such as high production costs, regulations on safety and emissions, and consumer preferences.

This practical book is of considerable interest to car and light truck manufacturers, policymakers, federal and state agencies, and the public.

Automotive Fuel Economy
Copyright
PREFACE
Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- TECHNICALLY ACHIEVABLE FUEL ECONOMY LEVELS
- PROVEN AND EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING FUEL ECONOMY
- SAFETY IMPLICATIONS
- ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
- THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
- THE CONSUMER
- POLICIES FOR IMPROVING FUEL ECONOMY
1 INTRODUCTION
- FUEL ECONOMY TRENDS SINCE 1975
- THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF REDUCED AUTOMOTIVE FUEL CONSUMPTION
  - Potential Benefits
  - Potential Costs
- THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PROBLEM
- ORGANIZATION OF REPORT
- REFERENCES
2 FUEL USE IN AUTOMOBILES AND LIGHT TRUCKS
- THE VEHICLE AS A SYSTEM
- ENGINE TECHNOLOGY AND FUEL USE
  - Standard Engine Technology
  - Performance/Fuel Economy Trade-Offs
- FUEL ECONOMY TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE NEXT DECADE
  - Proven Technologies
  - Emerging Technologies
- SUMMARY
- REFERENCES
3 SAFETY IMPLICATIONS OF FUEL ECONOMY MEASURES
- BACKGROUND
- VEHICLE CHARACTERISTICS AND FATALITY RISK
  - Risk of Crash Involvement
  - Risk of Injury
  - Design Compatibility
- SAFETY ISSUES IN IMPROVING FUEL ECONOMY
  - Impact of Downsizing and Downweighting on Safety
    - Past Studies
    - Data Issues
    - Individual versus Societal Risk
  - Light Trucks
  - Potential for Enhancing Safety through Design and Technology
- STRATEGIES FOR IMPROVING SAFETY AND FUEL ECONOMY
  - Exposure Control
  - Crash Prevention
  - Behavior Modification
- SAFETY AS A SOCIETAL VALUE
- FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS
- REFERENCES
4 ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
- THE NATURE OF AUTOMOTIVE EMISSIONS
- AUTOMOTIVE EMISSIONS CONTROL AND AIR QUALITY: A BRIEF HISTORY
- STANDARDS IN THE 1990 CLEAN AIR ACT AMENDMENTS
  - Federal Standards
  - California Standards
  - Emission Standards and Technology Development
- EMISSIONS CONTROL AND FUEL ECONOMY
  - Control of Oxides of Nitrogen
    - The Technical Challenge: Lean NOx Catalyst
    - Alternative NOx Control Strategies
  - Control of Hydrocarbons
    - Heated Catalysts
    - Gasoline Volatility
    - Reformulated Gasolines
    - Sulfur in Gasoline
    - Alternative Fuels
    - Control of Stationary Sources
  - Impact of Emissions Standards on Light Trucks
  - Surveillance of Existing Vehicles
- INDIRECT IMPACTS
- CONCLUSIONS
- REFERENCES
5 IMPACTS ON THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
- FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
- EFFECTS OF COMPETITION
  - Industry Trends
  - Employment Trends
  - Changing Market Share
  - Product Development
  - Manufacturing Productivity
  - Capacity for Investment
  - Structural Change in the Industry
- THE INTERNATIONAL AUTOMOTIVE MARKET
  - Impact of Fuel Prices
  - Concerns over Greenhouse Gases
- FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS
- REFERENCES
6 THE AUTOMOBILE, FUEL ECONOMY, AND THE CONSUMER
- THE AUTO MARKET IS A REPLACEMENT MARKET
- BALANCING FUEL COST, PURCHASE PRICE, AND VEHICLE CHARACTERISTICS
- THE AGING POPULATION MAY DEMAND FEWER SMALL CARS
- SHIFTS IN AGGREGATE CONSUMER PREFERENCES
- IMPACTS OF MANDATED FUEL ECONOMY ON THE CONSUMER
- FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS
- REFERENCES
7 FUEL ECONOMY PROJECTIONS
- PROJECTING FUEL ECONOMY LEVELS
  - Previous Efforts
  - Overview of the Projection Methods
  - Assumptions Common to All Projections
- HISTORICAL TREND PROJECTIONS
- BEST-IN-CLASS (BIC) PROJECTIONS
- TECHNOLOGY-PENETRATION OR SHOPPING CART PROJECTIONS
  - Method and Assumptions
  - Data
  - Results
- CONCLUSIONS
- REFERENCES
8 ACHIEVABLE FUEL ECONOMY LEVELS
- TECHNICALLY ACHIEVABLE FUEL ECONOMY
  - Method and Assumptions
  - Results
- PRACTICALLY ACHIEVABLE FUEL ECONOMY
  - Cost-Benefit Considerations
  - Costs and Benefits of Higher Fuel Economy to Consumers
  - Costs and Benefits of Higher Fuel Economy to Manufacturers
    - Sales
    - Employment
    - Competitiveness
  - Costs and Benefits of Higher Fuel Economy to the Nation
    - Petroleum Consumption
    - Safety
    - Emissions and the Environment
  - The Risk of Choosing Incorrectly
- POLICY COORDINATION AND ANALYSIS
- REFERENCES
9 POLICIES FOR IMPROVING FUEL ECONOMY
- COMMENTS ON THE EXISTING CAFE SYSTEM
- MARKET APPROACHES TO REDUCED FUEL CONSUMPTION
  - Increases in Fuel Price
  - Fees and Rebates for Fuel Economy
- IMPROVING THE CAFE SYSTEM
  - Timing
  - Alternatives to Uniform Fleet Targets
  - Light Trucks
  - Domestic Content
  - CAFE Credits
  - Unlawful Conduct
- OTHER POLICIES FOR REDUCING FUEL CONSUMPTION
- SUMMARY
- REFERENCES
APPENDIX A PRESS RELEASE ANNOUNCING FUEL ECONOMY STUDY
- INTRODUCTION
- OBJECTIVES
- PROPOSED EFFORT
- PHASE 1
  - Task 1
  - Task 2
  - Task 3
  - Task 4
- PHASE 2
  - Task 5
  - Task 6
- ANTICIPATED RESULTS
  - Committee Agenda:
APPENDIX B PROVEN AUTOMOTIVE TECHNOLOGIES: FUEL ECONOMY AND PRICE IMPLICATIONS
- DATA SOURCES FOR THE SHOPPING CART PROJECTIONS
- ENGINE TECHNOLOGIES
  - General
    - Roller Cam Followers
    - Friction Reduction
    - Accessory Improvements
    - Deceleration Fuel Restriction
    - Compression Ratio Increase
  - Fuel Systems (Throttle-Body And Multipoint Fuel Injection)
  - Valve Train Technologies
    - Overhead Camshaft
    - Four Valves per Cylinder
    - Variable Valve Timing and Lift Control
  - Number of Cylinders
  - Transmission Technologies
    - Torque Converter Lockup
    - Electronic Transmission Controls
    - 4-Speed and 5-Speed Automatic Transmissions
    - Continuously Variable Transmissions
    - 5-Speed Manual Transmission
- ROLLING RESISTANCE, AERODYNAMICS, WEIGHT, PERFORMANCE
  - Front-Wheel Drive
  - Aerodynamics
  - Weight Reduction
  - Electric Power Steering
  - Advanced Tires, Rolling Resistance
  - Reductions in Performance
- REFERENCES
APPENDIX C EMERGING ENGINE TECHNOLOGIES AND CONCEPT AND PROTOTYPE VEHICLES
- EMERGING ENGINE TECHNOLOGIES
  - Lean-Burn Engine
  - Diesel Engine
  - Two-Stroke Engine
- CONCEPT AND PROTOTYPE VEHICLES
- REFERENCES
Appendix D Vehicle Size and Occupant Safety: Private Versus Societal Risks in Two-Car Collisions
APPENDIX E SHOPPING CART PROJECTION METHOD: AN ILLUSTRATION FOR SUBCOMPACT CARS
- REFERENCES
APPENDIX F COMMITTEE MEETINGS AND ACTIVITIES
APPENDIX G BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF COMMITTEE MEMBERS
INDEX