Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources

An Evaluation of the Department of the Interior's 1989 Assessment Procedures

Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 9780309045339
eISBN Pdf: 9780309595162
Place of publication: United States
Year of digital publication: 1991
Month: January
Pages: 193
Language: English

Caption

When the U.S. Department of the Interior released its 1989 estimates of how much undiscovered oil and gas remain in the United States, a controversy ensued. Some members of the petroleum industry charged that the estimates were too low. This book evaluates the scientific credibility of the statistical and geological methods underlying the estimates.

Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources:
Copyright
Contents
Executive Summary
- QUESTIONS ABOUT THE DOI'S 1989 RESOURCE ASSESSMENT
- LIMITATIONS OF RESOURCE ASSESSMENTS
- AN EVALUATION OF THE DOI'S 1989 RESOURCE ASSESSMENT
  - The Committee's Findings
    - Improper play definition
    - Insufficient consideration of conceptual plays
    - Inadequate consideration of probabilistic dependence
    - Imposition of economic constraints on recoverable resource calculations
  - Other Opportunities to Improve Future Assessments
- RECOMMENDATIONS
  - Assessment Boundaries
  - USGS and MMS Management
  - Geological Approaches in Data Base Use and Play Analysis
  - Statistical Methods
  - Assessment Results
1 Introduction: Questions About the Department of the Interior's 1989 Resource Assessment
- WHY RESOURCE ASSESSMENTS VARY
- NEW ASSESSMENT METHODS
- REFERENCES
2 Limitations of Resource Assessments
- ASSESSMENT OBJECTIVES
- UNCERTAINTY IN ASSESSMENTS
- ASSESSMENT BOUNDARIES
  - Discovered/Undiscovered Boundary
  - Conventional/Unconventional Boundary
  - Recoverable/Unrecoverable Boundary
    - Technically Recoverable Resources
    - Economically Recoverable Resources
- DATA BASES FOR RESOURCE ASSESSMENTS
  - Geologic Data Base
  - Production and Drilling Data Base
- ESTIMATING RESERVE GROWTH
- ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY
  - The Evolution of Government Assessments
    - Subjective Probability Methods
    - Discovery-Process Models
  - Methods for Considering Economics
- RESOURCE ASSESSMENTS AND ENERGY POLICY
- REFERENCES
3 An Evaluation of the Department of the Interior's 1989 Resource Assessment
- ASSESSMENT BOUNDARIES
  - Conventional/Unconventional Boundary
  - In-Place Resources: Recoverable/Unrecoverable Boundary
  - Economic Boundaries
    - USGS Economic Boundaries
    - MMS Economic Boundaries
  - Inferred Reserves and Reserve Growth
- DETAILED EVALUATION USGS ASSESSMENT METHODS
  - Organization and Staff
  - Data Base
    - Sources
    - Association of American State Geologists' Review of USGS Data
    - Data Auditing
  - Play Analysis
    - Background
    - Sources of Information About Plays
    - The USGS's Application of Play Analysis
  - Quantification of Expert Judgment and Statistical Methods
    - Background: The Appraisal Form
    - Geologic Risk Factors
    - Sizes of Undiscovered Fields in a Play
    - Number of Undiscovered Fields in a Play
    - Aggregation Within a Play
    - Aggregation of Plays Within a Province
    - Regional and National Aggregates
    - Subjective Probability Assessment and Training
  - Case Study: Alaska
    - Data Base
    - Play Methodology
    - Technically Recoverable Resources Computation
    - Economic Assumptions: Minimum Economic Field Size
    - Uncertainty
- DETAILED EVALUATION OF MMS ASSESSMENT METHODS
  - Organization and Staff
  - Data Base
  - Play Analysis
    - Play Definition: Potential for Play Mixing
    - Conceptual Plays
    - Analytical Techniques
    - Alaska Assessment Forms
    - Probabilistic Dependence
    - Assumptions
    - Economic Input
    - Uncertainties
  - Statistical Methods
    - Number of Undiscovered Fields
    - Sizes of Undiscovered Fields
    - Geologic Risk Factors
    - Aggregation
- REFERENCES
4 Recommendations
- ASSESSMENT BOUNDARIES
- USGS AND MMS MANAGEMENT
- GEOLOGICAL APPROACHES IN DATA BASE USE AND PLAY ANALYSIS
  - Geological Data Bases
  - Play Formulation and Analysis
- STATISTICAL METHODS
- ASSESSMENT RESULTS
Appendixes
- Appendix A Evaluation of the Hydrocarbon Resource Estimates for the Offshore Areas of Northern and ...
  - Contents
  - Executive Summary
  - Introduction
  - Northern and Southern California Outer Continental Shelf Areas
    - Evaluation of Methodology
    - Conclusions
  - South Florida Basin Outer Continental Shelf, South of 260° Latitude
    - Evaluations of Methodology
      - Geology/Geophysics Data Base
      - Resource Assessment Procedures
    - Conclusions
- Appendix B Adequacy of the Data Base for Hydrocarbon Estimates of the Georges Bank Area of the Nort ...
  - Preface
  - Contents
  - Executive Summary
  - 1 Introduction
    - Location
    - Geologic History
  - 2 Geological and Geophysical Data Base
  - 3 Petroleum Geology
  - 4 Petroleum Resource Assessment of the Georges Bank
  - 5 Conclusions
  - 6 Recommendations
    - Data Needs
    - Reconsideration of the Resource Evaluation
  - References
- Appendix C The Effects of Play Mixing in the Permian Basin
  - Play 5
    - Analysis of Clusters 361 and 363
  - Play 6
    - Analysis of Cluster 375 and the Combination of Clusters 369 and 371
    - Analysis of Clusters 373 and 375 and the Combination of the Two
  - Reference
- Appendix D Background: Components of the Petroleum Resource Base
  - In-Place Resources
    - Cumulative Production
    - Proved Reserves
    - Indicated and Inferred Reserves
    - Undiscovered Resources
  - The Division of Resources into Conventional and Unconventional Categories
    - Conventional Resources
    - Unconventional Resources
  - Resources in Relation to Production