Modeling Cost and Performance for Military Enlistment

Report of a Workshop

Auteur: Mavor, Anne S.; Green, Bert F.
Éditeur: National Academies Press
ISBN: 9780309050418
eISBN Pdf: 9780309586535
Lieu de publication: United States
Année de publication électronique: 1994
Mois : Janvier
Pages: 170
DDC: 350
Langue: Anglais

Légende

This book describes a cost/performance trade-off model useful for illustrating the effects of budget decisions on the quality of expected performance in the military enlisted force. The model links recruit quality to job performance on the one hand and personnel costs on the other. Understanding these linkages provides a clear rationale, based on performance and cost differences, for choosing applicants for military service.

The book examines trends in the quality of military personnel from the beginning of the All-Volunteer Force in 1974 to the year 2000 and beyond. It discusses technical issues associated with the development of the various components of both cost and performance linkages and presents applications of the fully developed model.

Modeling Cost and Performance for Military Enlistment
Copyright
Preface
Contents
Opening Remarks: The Nexus Between Science and Policy
- JOB PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT AND ENLISTMENT STANDARDS
- RECRUIT QUALITY: ISSUE OF SCIENCE OR POLICY
- RECRUIT QUALITY, PERFORMANCE, AND COST
- DENOUEMENT
- APPRECIATION
  - Cost/Performance Trade-off Model
Part I: The Context of the Enlistment Standards Project
- ORIGINS OF THE JPM PROJECT
  - PROVIDING COST/PERFORMANCE TRADE-OFFS IN LINKING ENLISTMENT STANDARDS TO JOB PERFORMANCE
  - WORKSHOP PRESENTATIONS
  - REFERENCES
- MILITARY MANPOWER QUALITY: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE
  - THE HISTORY OF THE QUALITY ISSUE
    - Quality and the All-Volunteer Force
    - The Search for Quality Standards
  - QUALITY REQUIREMENTS AND TRENDS
    - Quality Requirements, 1985–1989
    - Trends in Enlisted Accessions and Quality
    - Quality Supply and Demand
  - FUTURE TRENDS AND ACTIVE-RESERVE ISSUES
  - CONCLUSION
  - REFERENCES
Part II Job Performance Measurement Issues
- SETTING PERFORMANCE GOALS FOR THE DOD LINKAGE MODEL
  - THE PERFORMANCE METRIC: DESCRIPTION OF THE SCALE FOR HANDS-ON PERFORMANCE QUALIFICATION
    - Task Sampling
    - Task Scoring
    - Combining Scores from Different Tasks
  - A NORMATIVE APPROACH
    - Samples
    - Variables
    - Analyses
    - Findings
  - CRITERION-REFERENCED APPROACHES
    - Phase II Design
      - Phase II Results
    - Comparison of Task-DPG and Task-APG Results
    - Additional Results from Phase III
    - Summary of SYNVAL Standard-Setting Results
  - CONCLUSIONS
    - Summary of Findings
    - Implications for Further Research
      - Enhancing Performance Level Descriptions
      - Linking Job Characteristics to Performance Distribution Targets
      - Linking Performance Distribution Targets to Unit Effectiveness and Readiness
  - REFERENCES
- PREDICTING JOB PERFORMANCE SCORES WITHOUT PERFORMANCE DATA
  - VALIDITY GENERALIZATION
  - SYNTHETIC VALIDITY
  - MULTILEVEL REGRESSION ANALYSIS
    - An Example
    - The Building Blocks of the Linkage Equation: Individual- and Job-Characteristic Variables
      - Derivation of the Individual-Characteristic Variables
      - Derivation of the Job-Characteristic Variables
    - Specification of the Linkage Equation
      - Structure of the Linkage Parameters
      - The Parameters for the Linkage Equation
      - Variance of Predicted Performance Scores
      - Deriving Job-Specific Equations
    - Validation of the Primary Linkage Equation
      - Method
      - Results
      - Shrinkage Formulae
      - Comparison of Adjusted and Cross-Validity R2 Values
      - Comparison of Validity Coefficients to the Literature
      - Summary
    - Discussion
  - ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
  - REFERENCES
Part III: The Cost/Performance Trade-off Model
- THE ACCESSION QUALITY COST/PERFORMANCE TRADE-OFF MODEL
  - INTRODUCTION
  - DESCRIPTION OF THE MODEL
    - Variables: Accessions by Recruit Category and Occupation Group
      - Recruit Categories
      - Occupation Groups
    - Constraints: Performance Goals by Occupation
      - Definition of Performance
      - Measuring Performance
      - Setting Performance Goals
    - Constraints: Strength Goals
    - Objective Function: Recruiting, Training, and Compensation Costs
      - Recruiting Costs
      - Training and Compensation Costs
  - VALIDATION OF THE MODEL
    - Model Selections Versus Actual Accession Cohorts
    - Variation in Model Scenarios
      - Scenario 1: Lower Performance Goals
      - Scenario 2: A Higher Unemployment Rate
      - Scenario 3: Increase in Training Costs
      - Scenario 4: No Effect of Quality on Performances Scores
  - SUMMARY
  - TECHNICAL APPENDIX
    - The Optimization Problem
      - Objective Function
      - Constraints
      - Optimization Approach
    - Recruiting Cost Function
  - REFERENCES
- POLICY AND MANAGEMENT APPLICATIONS OF THE ACCESSION QUALITY COST/PERFORMANCE TRADE-OFF MODEL
  - INTRODUCTION
  - CONGRESSIONAL DIALOGUE ON RECRUIT QUALITY STANDARDS
    - Importance of Linkages
    - Role of the Model
      - Hypothetical Accession Program
      - Proposed Recruiting Budget Reduction
      - Cost of Performance Increase
  - THE MODEL AS A PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION TOOL
    - Evaluation of a Recruiting Program
      - Feasibility
      - Efficiency
      - Robustness
      - Level of Performance
    - Developing the Service's Accession Programs
      - Setting Recruit Quality Goals and Resources
      - Adjusting for Specific Occupational Groups
      - Sensitivity to Recruiting Market Conditions
  - SETTING ENLISTMENT STANDARDS: ANALYSIS OF OCCUPATION-LEVEL ENLISTMENT STANDARDS
    - The Empirical Linkages: Linking Occupational Enlistment Standards to High Quality
    - Applying the Cost/Performance Trade-off Model to Enlistment Standards
    - Effect of Current Enlistment Standards on Recruit Quality and Cost
      - Reducing Enlistment Standards
  - SUMMARY
  - REFERENCES
Workshop Participants June 9-11, 1993
- COMMITTEE ON MILITARY ENLISTMENT STANDARDS
- OFFICE OF THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
- CONTRACTORS' REPRESENTATIVES
- AIR FORCE REPRESENTATIVES
- ARMY REPRESENTATIVES
- MARINE CORPS REPRESENTATIVES
- NAVY REPRESENTATIVES
- OTHER GUESTS
- NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL STAFF