This volume is based on the assumption that Iran will soon obtain nuclear weapons, and Jacquelyn K. Davis and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff Jr. develop alternative models for assessing the challenges of a nuclear Iran for U.S. security. Through three scenario models, the book explores the political, strategic, and operational challenges facing the United States in a post–Cold War world. The authors concentrate on the type of nuclear capability Iran might develop; the conditions under which Iran might resort to threatened or actual weapons use; the extent to which Iran's military strategy and declaratory policy might embolden Iran and its proxies to pursue more aggressive policies in the region and vis-à-vis the United States; and Iran's ability to transfer nuclear materials to others within and outside the region, possibly sparking a nuclear cascade. Drawing on recent post–Cold War deterrence theory, the authors consider Iran's nuclear ambitions as they relate to its foreign policy objectives, domestic politics, and role in the Islamic world, and they suggest specific approaches to improve U.S. defense and deterrence planning.
- Table of Contents
- List of Tables and Boxes
- Preface
- 1. Introductions: Setting the Scene for Iran's Emergence as a Nuclear Power
- 2. The Deterrence Dynamics of an Iran with Nuclear Weapons
- Does the Nature of the Regime Matter?
- Model I: A Defensive Iran
- Model II: An Aggressive Iran
- Model III: An Unstable Iran
- 3. Considerations Influencing Iran's Nuclear Emergence
- A Defensive Iran's Nuclear Posture, Doctrinal Priorities, and Force Posture (Model I)
- An Aggressive Iran that Flexes Its Muscles (Model II)
- An Unstable Iran and the Deterrence of Rogue ELements and Nonstate Actors (Model III)
- 4. Nuclear Weapons Operationalization: What Type of Nuclear Force?
- Model I: A Defensive Deterrent
- Model II: An Offensive Deterrent for an Aggressive Iran
- Model III: An Unstable Iran and the Need to Deter Regime Elements
- 5. Implications for U.S. Strategic and Operational Planning
- Iran as Catalyst for a New Deterrence Dynamic Among Nuclear States
- Israel and the Challenges of Catalytic Warfare
- Of Dyads, Triads, and the Need for a New Deterrence Paradigm Relating to a Nuclear Iran
- 6. U.S. Deterrence Planning in the Event of an Iranian Nuclear Breakout
- Declaratory Policy, Escalation Control, and Strategic Communications
- Offensive-Strike Options and Preventive Planning
- Reassuring Allies/Coalition Partners in the Face of Iranian Proliferation
- Assuring and Dissuading Israel in the Face of an Iranian Nuclear Breakout
- Missile Defenses and Consequence-Management Considerations
- 7. Dealing with a Nuclear Iran and Asymmetric Challenges
- Hezbollah and Asymmetric Operations
- Nuclear Weapons and Asymmetric Operations
- Deterring Rogue Elements of Nonstate Armed Groups
- Deterrence Planning for the Twenty-First Century
- 8. U.S. Deterrence Planning and Iran
- Extended Deterrence in the "Second Nuclear Age"
- Cyberwarfare and Network Operations
- Notes
- Index
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