Behind the Numbers

Behind the Numbers

U.S. Trade in the World Economy

  • Author: Kester, Anne Y.
  • Publisher: National Academies Press
  • ISBN: 9780309045902
  • eISBN Pdf: 9780309556033
  • Place of publication:  United States
  • Year of digital publication: 1992
  • Month: January
  • Pages: 312
  • Language: English

America's international economic decisions rest to a large degree on the information available to policymakers. Yet the quality of international trade and financial data is in serious doubt. This book reveals how our systems for collecting and analyzing trade data have fallen behind the times—and presents recommendations for new approaches to accuracy and usefulness of these economic data.

The volume traces the burgeoning use of international economic data by public and private analysts at a time when the United States is becoming increasingly integrated into the world economy. It also points out problems of capturing new transactions, comparing data from different sources, limited access to the data, and more. This is the first volume to review all three types of U.S. international data—merchandise trade, international services transactions, and capital flows. Highlights include:

  • Specific steps for U.S. agencies to take.
  • Special analyses on improving the accuracy of merchandise trade data, filling data gaps on the fast-growing international services transactions, and understanding structural changes in world capital markets.
  • Comments, complaints, and suggestions from an original survey of more than 100 key users of trade data.

This practical volume will be invaluable to policymakers, government officials, business executives, economists, statisticians, and researchers.

  • Behind The Numbers
  • Copyright
  • Contents
  • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
  • BEHIND THE NUMBER
  • SUMMARY OF MAJOR CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
    • SUPPLEMENTING THE EXISTING STATISTICAL FRAMEWORK AND INTEGRATING DISPARATE DATA SETS
      • A Supplemental Framework
      • Comparable Data
      • Recommendations
    • ENHANCING DATA QUALITY
      • Merchandise Trade
      • International Services Transactions
      • Capital Flows
      • Recommendations
        • Merchandise Trade
        • International Services Transactions
        • Capital Flows
    • IMPROVING THE DATA COLLECTION AND DATA ANALYSIS INTERFACE
      • Merchandise Trade
      • International Services Transactions
      • Capital Flows
      • Recommendations
  • INTRODUCTION
    • THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
    • DATA NEEDS
    • FOCUS OF ANALYSIS
    • METHODOLOGY AND REPORT STRUCTURE
  • PART I ENHANCING THE USABILITY OF DATA ON U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
    • 1 Supplementing the Balance-of-Payments Framework
      • EXISTING STATISTICAL FRAMEWORK
      • A SUPPLEMENTAL FRAMEWORK
        • Uses for Public and Private Decisions
        • Implications for Existing Data Systems
      • RECOMMENDATION
    • 2 Extending the Comparability of International and Domestic Economic Data
      • COMPARABLE DATA: NEEDED BUT LACKING
        • U.S. Foreign and Domestic Data
        • International Data
      • MERCHANDISE DATA
        • U.S. and Other Countries Data
        • Price Indexes for Imports And Exports
        • Domestic Production and Import and Export Data
        • Import and Export Data and Employment, Capital, and Other Establishment Data
        • Classification of Intermediate Inputs
      • SERVICES DATA
      • OTHER DATA
        • Sales of Goods and Services by Foreign Affiliates
        • Direct Investment
        • National Trade Data Bank
      • RECOMMENDATIONS
    • 3 Developing a Flexible Data System for U.S. International Economic Activities
      • CURRENT DATA
      • ROLE OF STATISTICAL AGENCIES
        • Strengthening Research and Analytic Capabilities
        • Determining Data Needs
        • Communicating Data Quality to Users
      • RECOMMENDATIONS
  • PART II IMPROVING DATA ON MERCHANDISE TRADE, INTERNATIONAL SERVICES TRANSACTIONS, AND CAPITAL FLOWS
    • 4 Merchandise Trade
      • DATA ON MERCHANDISE TRADE: KEY FEATURES
      • COLLECTION SYSTEM FOR MERCHANDISE TRADE DATA
        • Exports
        • Imports
        • Census Bureau Processing
        • Quality Control
        • Foreign Trade Division Computer Capabilities
      • SHORTCOMINGS OF THE DATA SYSTEM
        • Underreporting of Exports
        • Inadequate Reporting of Data Quality
        • Lack of Formal Data Management Procedures
      • IMPROVED DATA QUALITY
        • Improved Quality Control
          • A Continuous Independent Review System
          • A Multipurpose Port Audit Program
          • Producer-User Interface
          • Producer-Filer Interface
          • Reporting Data Adjustments for Undercounts and Imputations
          • Matrix Organization
          • Long-Range Planning
        • Increased Automation
          • Accuracy
          • Revisions
          • Timeliness
          • Automated Export Reporting
        • Use Of Sampling Techniques
      • RECOMMENDATIONS
        • Data Quality And Quality Control
        • Automation
        • Sampling
    • 5 International Services Transactions
      • DATA ON INTERNATIONAL SERVICES TRANSACTIONS: KEY FEATURES
      • METHODS OF ESTIMATING INTERNATIONAL SERVICES TRANSACTIONS
        • TRANSACTIONS BETWEEN AFFILIATED PARTIES OF MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS
          • Services Transactions Related to U.S. Direct Investment Abroad
          • Services Transactions Related to Foreign Direct Investment in the United States
          • Other Private Services, Unaffiliated
        • Traditional Services: Shipping and Tourism
          • International Shipping
          • Travel and Tourism
            • Air Travel Overseas
            • Travel With Canada
            • Travel With Mexico
        • Financial Services And Educational And Medical Transactions
          • Financial Services
          • Medical Services Receipts
          • Education Services
      • LIMITATIONS OF THE DATA
        • Transactions Between Affiliated Parties of Multinational Corporations
        • Other Private Services, Unaffiliated
        • Traditional Services: Shipping and Tourism
        • Financial Services and Educational and Medical Transactions
      • RECOMMENDATIONS
    • 6 International Capital Flows
      • DATA ON CAPITAL FLOWS: KEY FEATURES
      • DATA SYSTEMS FOR PRIVATE CAPITAL FLOWS
        • Direct Investment
        • Portfolio Investment Data
      • LIMITATIONS OF THE DATA
        • U.S. Direct Investment Abroad
        • Foreign Direct Investment In The United States
        • Securities
        • Banking
        • Nonbanking Businesses
        • Currency Flows
        • Incomes On Portfolio Investment
      • RECOMMENDATIONS
  • APPENDICES
    • A Sales and Purchases of Goods and Services Between Americans and Foreigners
      • Exchange Relationships
      • An Estimate of Net Sales of Goods and Services by Americans to Foreigners in 1987
    • B Canvass of Data Users
      • Canvass Method
      • Merchandise Trade Data
        • Sources and Kinds of Data
        • Uses
        • Data Acquisition and Processing
        • Timeliness
        • Accuracy
        • Unmet Users' Needs
      • International Services Transactions and Capital Flows
        • International Services Transactions
        • Capital Flows
      • Invitation for Written Comments
      • Protocol for Informal Interviews With Data Users
    • C A Comparison of U.S. Export Statistics With Those of Major Trading Partners
    • D Variability in Month-to-Month Changes in the Seasonally Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balances
      • Problems With the Data
      • Measuring the Variability of Month-to-Month Changes
      • A Simple Characterization of Variability
    • E An Alternative Seasonal Adjustment Procedure for Merchandise Trade Data
    • F Options for the Use of Sampling to Collect Merchandise Trade Data
      • Cutoff Sampling of Low-Value Trade Documents
        • Advantages of Cutoff Sampling
        • Disadvantages of Cutoff Sampling
        • Future Prospects
      • Probability Sampling of Trade Documents
        • Advantages of Probability Sampling
        • Disadvantages of Probability Sampling
        • Options for Probability Sampling of Transactions
        • Processing Considerations
      • Sampling of Enterprises and Establishments
        • Data Requirements
        • Technical Considerations
        • Conclusions
    • G Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff
  • ACRONYMS
  • REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY
  • INDEX

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