Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling

Volume I, Review and Recommendations

Editor: National Academies Press
ISBN: 9780309045414
eISBN Pdf: 9780309557306
Lugar de publicación: Estados Unidos
Año de publicación digital: 1991
Mes: Enero
Páginas: 361
Idioma: Ingles

Descripción

This book reviews the uses and abuses of microsimulation models—large, complex models that produce estimates of the effects on program costs and who would gain and who would lose from proposed changes in government policies ranging from health care to welfare to taxes.

Volume 1 is designed to guide future investment in modeling and analysis capability on the part of government agencies that produce policy estimates. It will inform congressional and executive decision makers about the strengths and weaknesses of models and estimates and will interest social scientists in the potential of microsimulation techniques for basic and applied research as well as policy uses.

The book concludes that a "second revolution" is needed to improve the quality of microsimulation and other policy analysis models and the estimates they produce, with a special emphasis on systematic validation of models and communication of validation results to decision makers.

Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions
Copyright
Contents
Acknowledgments
- Summary
  - IMPROVING THE TOOLS OF POLICY ANALYSIS: INVESTMENT PRIORITIES
    - Validation
    - Better Data
  - THE ROLE OF MICROSIMULATION AS A POLICY ANALYSIS TOOL
    - Databases
    - Model Design and Development
    - Computing Technology
    - Validation
    - Documentation and Archiving
    - The Structure of the Community
    - The Use of Microsimulation for Basic Research
  - RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVING POLICY ANALYSIS
    - Data
    - Validation
  - RECOMMENDATIONS FOR MICROSIMULATION MODELS
    - Databases
    - Model Design and Development
    - Computing Technology
    - Health Care and Retirement Policy Modeling
    - Validation
    - Documentation and Archiving
    - Structure of the Microsimulation Modeling Community
- 1 Introduction
  - A SCENE IN WASHINGTON, D.C.
  - THE TOOLS OF POLICY ANALYSIS
  - THE PANEL STUDY
Part I Information for Social Welfare Policy: Toward A Second Revolution
- 2 The Search for Useful Information
  - THE FIRST INFORMATION REVOLUTION
  - POLICY ANALYSIS: BETWEEN SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH AND POLITICS
  - A CASE STUDY OF POLICY ANALYSIS: THE FAMILY SUPPORT ACT OF 1988
    - Provisions That Could Be Estimated With Microsimulation Models
      - Provisions That Could Not Be Estimated With Microsimulation Models
      - Problems in the Estimation Process
- 3 Improving the Tools and Uses of Policy Analysis
  - A STRATEGY FOR INVESTMENT
  - DATA QUALITY AND AVAILABILITY
    - Investment in Data Production
      - Coordination of Data Production
      - Broadened Data Collection
      - Linking Survey and Administrative Data
      - Adding Value to Existing Data
  - VALIDATION
    - The Difficulty of Validation
      - Kinds of Model Validation
        External Validation
        Internal Validation
      - Investment in Model Validation
  - DOCUMENTATION AND COMMUNICATION OF THE RESULTS OF POLICY ANALYSIS
    - Documentation and Archiving as Aids to Validation
      - Communicating Validation Results to Decision Makers
- Appendix Models, Uncertainty, and Confidence Intervals
  - MODELS
  - UNCERTAINTY OF AN ESTIMATE
  - CONDITIONAL VERSUS UNCONDITIONAL CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
  - AN ILLUSTRATIVE DIAGRAM
Part II The Role of Microsimulation as a Policy Analysis Tool
- 4 Microsimulation Models: Then and Now
  - BASIC ELEMENTS OF MICROSIMULATION MODELS
  - DEVELOPMENT OF MICROSIMULATION MODELING FOR POLICY ANALYSIS
    - Origins: 1950s to mid-1960s
      - Development of Static Models: Late 1960s to Early 1980s
      - Development of Dynamic Models: 1970s to Early 1980s
      - Retreats and Advances: The 1980s
  - ROLE AND CURRENT STATUS OF MICROSIMULATION: FINDINGS
    - Overall Value
      - A Range of Policy Analysis Tools
      - Analytical Costs
      - Model Uncertainty
      - Data Adequacy
      - Research Knowledge
      - Computer Technologies
      - Microsimulation Modeling Community
      - Future Directions
- 5 Databases for Microsimulation
  - DATA QUALITY: THE MARCH CPS
    - Survey-Based Problems
      - Coverage
        Response Rates
        Sampling Error
      - Missing Detail
      - Data Omissions
  - STRATEGIES FOR TREATING MISSING AND ERRONEOUS DATA
    - Disaggregation
      - Imputation for Item Nonresponse
      - Imputation for Items Not Collected
        Exact Matches
        Statistical Matches
      - Adjustment to Outside Control Totals
  - THE PROMISE OF SIPP
  - RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVING DATA QUALITY
    - Evaluating the Quality of Existing Data Sources
      - Survey Data
        Administrative Data
      - Improving Databases for the Near and Long Term
        Near-Term Approaches
        Long-Term Approaches
      - Expanding the Census Bureau's Role
- 6 Model Design and Development
  - MODEL DESIGN PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICES
    - Design Principles
      - Clear Analytic Goals
        Self-Contained Modules
        Facilitated Documentation and Evaluation
        Linkages
        Computational Efficiency
        Accessibility to Users
      - Practices
  - CURRENT MICROSIMULATION MODEL DESIGN
  - STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS FOR MICROSIMULATION MODEL DEVELOPMENT
    - Data Aging
      - Existing Aging Techniques
        Issues and Trade-Offs
      - Incorporation of Behavioral Response
        Behavioral Responses in Current Models
        Issues and Trade-Offs
  - INCORPORATION OF SECOND-ROUND EFFECTS
    - Existing Models of Second-Round Effects
      - Issues and Trade-Offs
- 7 Computing Technology and Microsimulation
  - THE EVOLUTION OF MICROSIMULATION COMPUTING PLATFORMS
    - DYNASIM2
      - TRIM2
  - NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN COMPUTING TECHNOLOGY
    - Alternative Computing Platforms: SPSD/M Versus TRIM2
      - New Computing Capabilities Versus Microsimulation Requirements
  - FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR COMPUTING IN MICROSIMULATION
- 8 Microsimulation Modeling of Health Care, Retirement Income, and Tax Policies
  - HEALTH CARE POLICIES
    - Microsimulation Modeling for Health Care Policy
      - Issues in Modeling Health Care Policy Alternatives
        Research Knowledge
        Databases
      - Suggestions and Recommendations
      - Model Development
        Data
        Research
  - RETIREMENT INCOME POLICIES
    - Microsimulation Modeling for Retirement Policy
      - Suggestions and Recommendations
        Linked Data
        Behavioral Research
  - TAX POLICIES
    - Microsimulation Modeling for Tax Policies
      - Developing a Tax Model Database: The Case of OTA
      - Issues in Modeling Tax Policies
- 9 Validation
  - CORROBORATION AS A STAND-IN FOR VALIDATION
  - TECHNIQUES OF MODEL VALIDATION
    - External Validation
    - Sensitivity Analysis
      - Variance Estimation
      - Loss Functions
  - REVIEW OF VALIDATION STUDIES
    - Doyle and Trippe
      - Haveman and Lacker
      - Kormendi and Meguire
  - A VALIDATION STUDY OF TRIM2: THE PANEL'S EXPERIMENT
    - Description
      - Results
      - Limitations of the Experiment
      - Major Conclusions
  - STRATEGIES FOR VALIDATING MICROSIMULATION MODELS: RECOMMENDATIONS
    - Institutional Arrangements for Model Validation
      - Research on Model Validation Methods
      - Quality Profiles
- 10 Documentation and Archiving
  - STANDARDS FOR MODEL DOCUMENTATION
  - A DOCUMENTATION CASE STUDY
  - RECOMMENDATIONS
- 11 The Microsimulation Modeling Community
  - RELATIONSHIPS AMONG FEDERAL AGENCIES
    - Policy Analysis Agencies
      - Statistical and Policy Analysis Agencies
  - POLICY ANALYSIS AGENCIES AND THEIR SUPPLIERS
  - POLICY ANALYSIS AGENCIES AND DECISION MAKERS' STAFFS
  - THE ROLE OF RESEARCH
    - Contributions of Research to Policy Analysis
      - The Promise of Microsimulation for Social Science Research
- Appendix Microsimulation Models, Databases, and Modeling Terms
  - MODELS
    - DYNASIM2 (Dynamic Simulation of Income Model 2)
      - HITSM (Household Income and Tax Simulation Model)
      - MATH (Micro Analysis of Transfers to Households)
      - MRPIS (Multi-Regional Policy Impact Simulation)
      - PRISM (Pension and Retirement Income Simulation Model)
      - Long-Term Care Financing Model (Submodel of PRISM)
      - Treasury Individual Income Tax Simulation Model (OTA Model)
      - TRIM2 (Transfer Income Model 2)
  - DATABASES
  - MODELING TERMS
Glossary of Acronyms
References
Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff
Index