How will global warming affect developing countries, which rely heavily on agriculture as a source of economic growth? William Cline asserts that developing countries have more at risk, such as their production capacity, than industrial countries as global warming worsens. Using general circulation models, Cline boldly examines 2071–99 to forecast the effects of global warming and its economic impact into the next decade. This detailed study outlines existing studies on climate change; Cline finds the Stern Report for the UK government's estimates most reliable; estimates projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and agricultural capacity; and concludes with policy recommendations. Cline finds that agricultural production in developing countries may fall an average of 16 percent, and if global warming progresses at its current rate, India's agricultural capacity could fall as much as 40 percent. Thus, policymakers should address this phenomenon now before the world's developing countries are adversely and irreversibly affected.
- Cover
- Contents
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Chapter 1 Introduction and Overview
- Main Features of the Book
- Plan of the Book
- Chapter 2 Brief Survey of Existing Literature
- Chapter 3 Key Issues: Carbon Fertilization, Irrigation, and Trade
- Carbon Fertilization
- The Irrigation Question
- Trade as Moderator?
- Chapter 4 Country-Level Climate Projections
- The Climate Models
- Country-Level Climate Results: Present Day and for 2070–99
- Chapter 5 Country-Level Agricultural Impact Estimates
- Mendelsohn-Schlesinger Agricultural Response Functions
- Mendelsohn-Schlesinger Estimates for the United States
- Ricardian Estimates for Developing Countries and Canada
- Sensitivity to Climate Models
- Rosenzweig et al. Crop Model Results
- Synthesis of Preferred Estimates
- Comparison to Estimates in the Model-Source Studies
- Chapter 6 Dynamic Considerations
- Chapter 7 Conclusion
- Appendix A Standardizing Global Grids of Climate Change Data
- Appendix B Mapping Grid Cells to Countries
- Description of the Global Popluation Distribution Database
- Mapping from 1 Degree Cell Assignments to National Climate Data
- Appendix C Calculating the Geographical Area of the Grid Cell
- Appendix D Definitions of Countries, Regions, and Subzones
- Appendix E Estimating Farm Area and Agricultural Output by Country, Region, and Subzone
- Agricultural Output
- Geographical Versus Farm Land Area
- Subzone Farm Area and Output
- Estimates
- Appendix F Country-Level Results with the Mendelsohn-Schesinger Functions
- Reduced Form Results
- Cross-Section (Ricardian) Results
- Appendix G Ricardian Models for India, Africa, and Latin America
- Appendix H Monthly Climate Data, 1961–90 and 2070–99
- Appendix I Dispersion of Climate Projections Across General Circulation Models
- References
- Glossary
- Index
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