Although the U.S. aeronautics industry has been one of the undisputed success stories in global competitiveness throughout the latter half of this century and is currently one of the largest positive industrial contributors to the U.S. balance of trade, long-term strategic planning is necessary to ensure that the United States retains a strong and competitive aeronautics industry in the future. Recognizing that a long-term strategic plan for aeronautics requires a broad-based national perspective that includes the needs of users and consumers, the National Research Council conducted a workshop that would bring together experts from industry, government, and academia to analyze a number of possible scenarios for aeronautics 15 to 25 years hence. The results of the workshop, which are discussed in this book, focus on potential needs and opportunities for aviation and aeronautics in the future and their implications for several broad areas of technology development. These areas include new types of aircraft, improved system integration in aircraft design manufacturing and operations, passenger and crew safety and security, operating efficiency and cost effectiveness, environmental compliance and noise abatement, and access to space.
- Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics
- Copyright
- Preface
- THE TASK
- STUDY APPROACH
- ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT
- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
- Contents
- Executive Summary
- NEEDS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR AERONAUTICS
- SYSTEM LEVEL TECHNOLOGY IMPLICATIONS
- New Aircraft
- System Integration in Aircraft Design, Manufacturing, and Operations
- Passenger and Crew Safety and Security
- Improved Operating Efficiency and Cost Effectiveness
- Environmental Protection and Noise Abatement
- Access to Space
- NASA'S FUTURE ROLE IN MAINTAINING U.S. COMPETITIVENESS IN AERONAUTICS
- REFERENCE
- 1 Introduction
- NEED FOR STRATEGIC PLANNING IN AERONAUTICS
- PRE-WORKSHOP DEVELOPMENT OF THE SCENARIOS
- THE WORKSHOP
- MAINTAINING U.S. COMPETITIVENESS IN AERONAUTICS
- REFERENCES
- 2 Long-Term Global Scenarios and Their Implications for Aeronautics
- INTRODUCTION
- PUSHING THE ENVELOPE
- Summary
- Aviation and Aeronautics in the "Pushing the Envelope" Scenario
- Needs, Opportunities, and Their Implications
- Worldwide Demand for Efficient, Low-Cost Air Passenger Service
- Customer-Tailored Air Products and Services
- Increased Investments in Existing Transportation Infrastructure
- Improvements in the Air Traffic Management System
- High Security and Reduced Accident Rates
- Environmentally Friendly Air Transportation System
- Dependable, Reliable, Low-Cost Air Cargo Service
- Low-Cost, Reliable Access to Space
- Aerospace Research and Development Partnerships
- Global Responsibilities of the U.S. Military
- GROUNDED
- Summary
- Aviation and Aeronautics in the "Grounded" Scenario
- Needs, Opportunities, and Their Implications
- Specialized Cargo Aircraft
- Low-Capacity, Long-Range Transports
- General Aviation
- Military Operations Vehicle
- Survivability and Security Technologies
- Air Traffic Management
- Access to Space
- Enhanced Modeling and Simulation
- REGIONAL TENSIONS
- Summary
- Aviation and Aeronautics in the "Regional Tensions" Scenario
- Needs, Opportunities, and their Implications
- Unstaffed or Autonomous Air Traffic Control
- Virtual, Smart, Universal Aircraft "Factory"
- Short-to Medium-Range, Infrastructure-Independent Transports
- Extremely Long-Range, Large, Supersonic Transports
- Skill-Targeted Education System
- Uninhabited Air Vehicles
- Controlled Observability, Low-Noise Technologies
- Low-Cost, On-Demand, Nonhuman Access to Space
- TRADING PLACES
- Summary
- Aviation and Aeronautics in the "Trading Places" Scenario
- Needs, Opportunities, and their Implications
- Privately or Regionally Owned and Operated Air Transportation Systems
- Long-Range, Large-Payload Aircraft
- High-Speed Business Travel to Any Location in the World
- ENVIRONMENTALLY CHALLENGED
- Summary
- Aviation and Aeronautics in the "Environmentally Challenged" Scenario
- Needs, Opportunities, and their Implications
- Aircraft with Reduced or Zero CO2 Emissions
- Low-Cost, On-Demand, Remote Sensing Capabilities
- Improved Air Traffic Management to Reduce Fuel Consumption
- Improved Security for Commercial Aircraft
- SUMMARY OF NEEDS AND OPPORTUNITIES
- 3 Needs and Opportunities, Technology Implications, and the Future Role of NASA
- FUTURE NEEDS AND OPPORTUNITIES
- Robust, Significant, and Noteworthy Needs and Opportunities
- Findings
- Challenging Needs and Opportunities
- Specialized Needs and Opportunities
- Military Needs
- Access to Space
- Manufacturing Needs and Opportunities
- SYSTEM LEVEL TECHNOLOGY IMPLICATIONS
- New Aircraft
- System Integration in Aircraft Design, Manufacturing, and Operations
- Safety and Security of Passengers and Crews
- Improved Operating Efficiency and Cost Effectiveness
- Environmental Protection and Noise Abatement
- Access to Space
- NASA'S FUTURE ROLE IN MAINTAINING U.S. COMPETITIVENESS IN AERONAUTICS
- REFERENCES
- APPENDICES
- APPENDIX A Statement of Task
- APPENDIX B Biographical Sketches of Steering Committee Members
- APPENDIX C Workshop Participants
- NASA CORE TEAM PERSONNEL
- THE FUTURES GROUP/SAIC
- ASEB STAFF
- APPENDIX D Scenario Narratives as Provided by the NASA/TFG/SAIC Core Team
- SUMMARY
- SUMMARY
- SUMMARY
- SUMMARY
- SUMMARY
- Appendix E Workshop Agenda
- Appendix F Questions for World Team Sessions
- Appendix G Bibliography
- Appendix H Scenario-Based Strategic Planning as Described by the Futures Group
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