We have available an impressive array of information technology. We can transmit literature, movies, music, and talk. Government, businesses, and individuals are eager to go on-line to buy, sell, teach, learn, and more. How, then, should we go about developing an infrastructure for on- line communication among everyone everywhere?
The Unpredictable Certainty explores the national information infrastructure (NII) as the collection of all public and private information services. But how and when will the NII become a reality? How will more and better services reach the home, small businesses, and remote locations? The Unpredictable Certainty examines who will finance the NII, exploring how technology companies decide to invest in deployment and the the vain search for "killer apps" (applications that drive markets). It discusses who will pay for ongoing services and how they will pay, looking at past cost/price models relevant to the future. The Unpredictable Certainty discusses the underlying technologies, appliances, and services needed before the NII becomes a reality; reviews key features of important technologies; and analyzes current levels of deployment in telephone, cable and broadcast television, and wireless systems, and the difficulties in interconnection.
The volume explores the challenge of open interfaces that stimulate new applications but also facilitate competition, the trend toward the separation of infrastructure from specific services, the tension between mature services and new contenders, the growth of the Internet, and more. The roles governments at different levels might play in fostering NII deployment are outlined, including R&D and the use of information infrastructure for better delivery of government services and information.
- The Unpredictable CERTAINTY
- Copyright
- Preface
- Contents
- 1 Introduction and Summary
- DEFINING THE NATIONAL INFORMATION INFRASTRUCTURE
- DRIVING DEPLOYMENT: BUSINESS TRANSITIONS, BUSINESS MODELS
- THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE INTERNET
- As a Barometer of Potential
- As a Laboratory for Development of Workable Standards
- As a Basis for Critical Flexibility
- As a Vehicle for New Market Structures
- Whither the Internet?
- REALIZING THE NII'S POTENTIAL—THE USER PERSPECTIVE
- DEPLOYMENT OF INFRASTRUCTURE TECHNOLOGY
- Access
- Flexibility and Interoperability
- Additional Technology Concerns
- User Interaction with Networked Infrastructure
- PUBLIC VERSUS PRIVATE OBJECTIVES
- ORGANIZATION OF THIS REPORT
- NOTES
- 2 Making Technology Work: Individual and Organized End Users
- WHO IS THE END USER?
- WHY THE NII MUST REACH THE HOME
- EVOLVING DEMAND FOR NII CAPABILITIES
- THE END USER AS CONSUMER
- ACCESS DEVICES
- The Personal Computer
- The Television
- The Telephone and Other Access Devices
- Toward a Fully Integrated Home System
- WHAT INCREASING USE OF GENERAL-ACCESS DEVICES IMPLIES FOR NETWORKING TECHNOLOGY DEPLOYMENT
- High Data Rates to the End Point
- Adequate Bandwidth in Both Directions
- Multiple-Session Capability
- Continuous Availability of Service
- Real-time, Multimedia Communication
- Nomadicity
- Security
- CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS
- NOTES
- 3 Where Is the Business Case?
- FACTORS SHAPING INVESTMENT IN INFORMATION INFRASTRUCTURE
- INVESTMENT IN FACILITIES
- The Problem of How Much Bandwidth to Invest In
- Federal Licenses as an Influence on Deployment of New Wireless Systems
- Investing to Achieve Infrastructure Generality
- FROM FACILITIES TO SERVICES AND APPLICATIONS
- Balancing Investment—Software ''Capital"
- The Separation of Services from Facilities— Broadening the Potential Content
- THE INTERNET AND ITS USE FOR BUSINESS
- Effects on Provision of Goods and Services
- The Internet—Layering, Incrementalism, and Diversification
- INCREMENTAL INCREASES
- ARRANGEMENTS FOR INTERCONNECTION
- ECONOMIC MODELS
- Usage-based Fees for Communications and Information Services
- Embedded or Domain-specific Services
- The Broadcast Model
- End-User Devices Paid for by Consumers
- The Access Subscription Model
- Payment Models and the Internet Phenomenon
- NOTES
- 4 Technology Options and Capabilities: What Does What, How
- THE CHANGING NATURE OF TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATIONS
- HOW TRENDS IN TECHNOLOGY ARE CHANGING COMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICES
- Separation of Infrastructure Facilities and Service Offerings
- Building Services on Each Other
- The Tension Between Supporting Mature and Emerging Services
- RESOLVING THE TENSION: THE INTERNET AS AN EXAMPLE
- The Importance of the Internet
- The Coexistence of New and Mature Services
- CURRENT TECHNOLOGY—EVALUATING THE OPTIONS
- Hybrid Fiber Coaxial Cable
- Fiber to the Curb
- Digital Services and the Telephone Infrastructure
- Data Over the Telephone System
- Asynchronous Transfer Mode
- Local Area Networks
- Wireless
- Broadcasting
- Satellite
- Power Industry as Infrastructure Provider
- The Internet
- Change and Growth
- Transport Infrastructure to Information Infrastructure
- Open Interfaces and Open Standards
- STANDARDS AND INNOVATION IN THE MARKETPLACE
- MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE
- NOTES
- 5 Technology Choices: What Are the Providers Deploying?
- INTRODUCTION
- WIRELINE TELEPHONY
- Summary and Forecasts
- Local Access and the Larger System
- Integrated Services Digital Network
- Telephone Industry Fiber Deployment
- Demand for Telephone Services
- DATA COMMUNICATIONS
- Summary and Forecasts
- Data Services Provided by Telephone Carriers
- Business Networking
- CABLE TELEVISION AND TELEPHONY: ADVANCED SERVICES TO THE HOME
- Summary and Forecasts
- Advanced Cable and Telephone Services to the Home
- ON-LINE SERVICES AND INTERNET ACCESS FOR CONSUMERS
- Summary and Forecasts
- On-line Services and Internet Access
- WIRELESS AND BROADCAST INFRASTRUCTURE
- Summary and Forecasts
- Wireless Telephony
- Wireless Data Networking
- Terrestrial and Satellite Broadcast Television
- Wireless Cable
- Direct Broadcast Satellite
- NOTES
- 6 Public Policy and Private Action
- INTRODUCTION
- Public-Private Engagement
- NII Systems Issues
- DEFINING ROLES FOR GOVERNMENT
- Regulation, Rules, and Norms
- Protecting the NII: Ethics and Mechanisms
- Security, Reliability, and Architecture
- Government as User and Service Provider
- Technology Development Through R&D
- Architecture and Networking
- Information Management and Ease of Use
- Standards
- International Issues
- Systems Data and Analysis for NII Assessment
- Government as Convenor
- CONCLUSIONS
- NOTES
- Bibliography
- Appendixes
- A Workshop Participants and Agenda
- B Forum Participants and Agenda
- C Call for White Papers (Abridged)
- Responding To The Call
- Format Requirements Summary
- Computer Science And Telecommunications Board
- White Paper Criteria And Format
- Criteria
- Format
- A. Statement of the Problem
- B. Background (approximately 4 to 5 pages)
- C. Analysis and Forecast (approximately 12 to 15 pages)
- D. Recommendations (approximately 3 to 4 pages)
- E. Additional Resources (optional)
- D White Papers Received
- E NII 2000 Liaisons
- F Letter from Vice President Albert Gore March 6, 1995
- G Acronyms and Abbreviations Used
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