By focusing attention on individuals rather than on aggregates, this book takes a novel approach to studying criminal behavior. It develops a framework for collecting information about individual criminal careers and their parameters, reviews existing knowledge about criminal career dimensions, presents models of offending patterns, and describes how criminal career information can be used to develop and refine criminal justice policies. In addition, an agenda for future research on criminal careers is presented.
- Criminal Careers and "Career Criminals":
- Copyright
- Contents
- Preface
- Criminal Careers and "Career Criminals"
- Summary
- THE CRIMINAL CAREER APPROACH
- FINDINGS ON CRIMINAL CAREERS
- Participation in Offending
- Measures of Participation
- Risk Factors in Criminal Participation
- Individual Frequencies for Active Offenders
- Overall Rates
- Demographic Differences in λ
- Other Factors Related to λ
- Trends in Seriousness
- Career Length
- USE OF CRIMINAL CAREER INFORMATION IN CRIMINAL JUSTICE DECISION MAKING
- Career Modification
- Incapacitation
- PREDICTION-BASED CLASSIFICATION RULES
- Existing Decision Practices
- Ethical Limitations
- Methodological Issues
- Specific Classification Rules
- Record-Keeping Implications
- AN AGENDA FOR FUTURE RESEARCH
- 1 Introduction: Studying Criminal Careers
- THE CRIMINAL CAREERS CONCEPT
- CRIME CONTROL POLICIES
- Knowledge for Policy
- Classification of Offenders
- Ethical Considerations
- DIMENSIONS OF CRIMINAL CAREERS
- Participation
- Individual Frequency Rates, Seriousness, and Duration
- Basic Definitions and Symbols
- Basic Model of a Criminal Career
- Extensions of the Basic Model
- USING THE CRIMINAL CAREER PARADIGM
- Interpreting Aggregate Crime Rates
- Demographic Correlates of Criminal Careers
- Incapacitation, Rehabilitation, and Deterrence
- SCOPE OF THE PANEL'S REPORT
- 2 Participation in Criminal Careers
- STUDY DESIGNS AND PARTICIPATION ESTIMATES
- PARTICIPATION AMONG MALES
- Official-Record Estimates
- Self-Report Estimates
- PARTICIPATION ESTIMATES BY SEX, RACE, AND AGE
- OTHER FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH PARTICIPATION
- Family Influences
- Parenting
- Parental Criminality
- Family Disruption
- Family Size and Structure
- Early Antisocial Behavior
- Social Class
- School Performance and Intelligence
- Substance Abuse
- Employment
- Peer Group Influences
- SUMMARY
- 3 Dimensions of Active Criminal Careers
- INDIVIDUAL FREQUENCY RATES
- Arrest Frequencies (μ) by Crime Type
- Offending Frequencies (λ) By Crime Type
- Inferring λ from μ
- The Rand Inmate Surveys
- National Youth Survey
- Estimates of λ
- Variations in λ by Sex, Age, and Race
- Other Factors Associated with Variations in Frequency Rates
- Age at Onset of Criminal Activity
- Drug Use
- Employment
- Previous Criminal Involvement
- Summary
- SERIOUSNESS
- Types of Studies
- Changes in Offense Mix
- General Offense-Switching Patterns
- Race
- Sex
- Age
- Offense Clusters
- Specialization
- Escalation
- TERMINATION AND LENGTH OF CRIMINAL CAREERS
- Types of Studies
- Persistence by Delinquents into Adult Careers
- Measuring Career Length by Number of Arrests
- Measuring Career Length in Years
- CONCLUSION
- 4 Methodological Issues in Criminal Career Research
- OBSERVATIONAL APPROACHES: SELF-REPORTS AND OFFICIAL RECORDS
- Self-Reports
- Official Records
- Potential for Synthesis of Observational Methods
- SAMPLING ISSUES
- USE OF COHORT AND CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA
- PROBLEMS OF CONFOUNDED EFFECTS
- EXPLICIT MODELS OF OFFENDING
- 5 Crime Control Strategies Using Criminal Career Knowledge
- STRATEGIES TO PREVENT PARTICIPATION
- Experimental Evaluations of Preventive Interventions
- Interventions with the Family
- Preschool Programs
- Other Interventions
- Summary: Preventive Interventions
- CAREER MODIFICATION STRATEGIES
- Career Modification: Community-Based and Family Treatment Programs
- Juveniles
- Adults
- Summary: Community-Based and Family Treatment Programs
- Career Modification: Substance Abuse Treatment
- Career Modification: Interventions to Improve Employment Status
- Occupational Skills Training: Job Corps
- Postprison Assistance
- INCAPACITATION STRATEGIES
- Collective Incapacitation
- Selective Incapacitation
- Ethical Concerns
- Sentences Based on Offender Characteristics: The Rand Inmate Survey Scale
- Parole Release Based on Offender Characteristics: The Salient Factor Score
- Charge-Based Sentencing Policies
- Operational Issues in Assessing Alternative Selective Incapacitation Policies
- Summary: Incapacitation Strategies
- TECHNICAL NOTE
- A Model of Incapacitation
- Applying the Model to Estimate the Effects of a Collective Incapacitation Policy
- Applying the Model to Estimate the Effects of a Selective Incapacitation Policy
- 6 Use of Criminal Career Information in Criminal Justice Decision Making
- INTRODUCTION
- CRIMINAL CAREER PERSPECTIVES IN CRIMINAL JUSTICE DECISION MAKING
- Police Decisions
- Prosecution
- Decision Making in the Absence of Career Criminal Units
- Career Criminal Unit Evaluations
- Pretrial Release
- Sentencing
- Parole Release
- CONCLUSIONS
- ISSUES IN PREDICTION-BASED CLASSIFICATION
- Introduction
- Ethical Issues
- Ethical Considerations in Selecting Candidate Risk Factors
- Developing Classification Rules
- Defining the Criterion Variable
- Selecting and Weighting Variables
- Defining the Classification Rule
- Validating-The Predictive Relationship
- Issues in Transferring Classification Rules
- EXPLICIT CLASSIFICATION SCALES
- Rand Inmate Survey Scale
- Salient Factor Score
- Iowa Risk Assessment Instrument
- Proposed Inslaw Scale
- Summary
- ADULT, JUVENILE, AND NON-JUSTICE SYSTEM RECORDS AND THEIR INTEGRATION
- Adult Records
- Juvenile Records
- Other Records
- CONCLUSIONS
- 7 An Agenda for Future Research
- BACKGROUND
- A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF CRIMINAL CAREERS
- SPECIFIC RESEARCH QUESTIONS
- Research on Intervention Strategies
- Preventive Interventions
- Career Modification Strategies
- Selective Incapacitation
- Individual Deterrent Effects
- Measurement of Criminal Career Dimensions and Their Correlates
- Individual Crime Rates
- Group Offending
- Career Length
- Participation
- New Directions in Measurement and Modeling
- SUPPORTIVE ORGANIZATIONAL ARRANGEMENTS
- Continuation and Expansion of the Crime Control Theory Program
- Criminal Career Data Repository
- Appendix A Participation in Criminal Careers
- INTRODUCTION
- Obstacles to the Understanding and Measurement of Pervasiveness
- Importance of Participation
- A Conceptual Framework for Offender Participation
- ESTIMATES OF CRIMINAL PARTICIPATION
- Background
- Scope of Literature Review
- Types of Studies and Data Sources
- Estimates of Criminal Participation by Age 18
- The Philadelphia Cohorts
- Other U.S. Longitudinal Studies
- U.S. Life-Table Analyses
- Analyses of Multiple Data Bases
- British Studies
- Criminal Participation by Older Ages, Including Lifetime
- U.S. Arrest Projections
- U.S. Longitudinal Studies
- Foreign Studies
- Criminal Participation by High School Age
- Self-Report Studies
- Official-Record Studies
- Current Participation Rates
- National Youth Survey
- Youth-In-Transition Project
- Self-Reports by Cross-Section Samples
- Summary of Participation Estimates
- Participation by Age 18
- Lifetime Participation
- Self-Report Estimates
- FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH PARTICIPATION
- Sex and Participation
- Race and Participation
- Age and Participation
- Other Factors Associated with Participation
- Socioeconomic Status
- Family Structure and Disruptions
- Other Family Influences
- Family Members' Criminal Behavior
- Early Antisocial Behavior
- School Performance and Intelligence
- Miscellaneous Attributes
- CONCLUSION
- Appendix B Research On Criminal Careers: Individual Frequency Rates and Offense Seriousness
- INTRODUCTION
- INDIVIDUAL OFFENDING FREQUENCIES FOR ACTIVE OFFENDERS
- Distinguishing Individual Frequency Rates from Aggregate Incidence Rates
- Review of Estimates of Individual Frequency Rates
- Estimating λ from Self-Reports: The Rand Inmate Surveys
- Estimating Individual Frequency Rates from Arrest Histories
- Alternative Estimates of Individual Offending Frequencies
- Summary
- Methodological Issues in Estimating Individual Frequency Rates
- Biases in Offender Samples: Differences in Sampling Probabilities
- Biases in Offender Samples: The Problem of Low Response Rates to Self-Report Surveys
- Obtaining Valid Frequency Estimates from Self-Reports
- Obtaining Valid Frequency Estimates from Official Records
- Measurement Problems in Developing Individual Frequency Estimates
- A Sampling Strategy for Detecting High-Rate Offenders
- Explicit Behavioral Models of Offending
- OFFENSE SERIOUSNESS DURING CRIMINAL CAREERS
- Review of Empirical Research
- Early U.S. Studies
- Analyses Using Transition Matrices
- Methodological Issues in Analyzing Offense Seriousness
- Requirement for Large Sample Size
- Reliance on Official Records
- Biases Associated with Sample Selection
- Role of Frequency Rates, Career Length, and Incapacitation in Switching Patterns
- Alternatives to Simple Markov Models
- Appendix C Workshop on Research on Criminal Careers: Program and Participants
- Appendix D Biographical Sketches, Panel Members and Staff
- References
- Index
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