Growing global imbalances threaten to induce a collapse of the dollar, which could in turn produce a severe recession in the rest of the world. This crisis could force countries to say "never again" and search for a system to prevent similar disasters. The system that could do so is a reference rate system—where countries' authorities are forbidden from intervening in order to push the exchange rate too far from what is termed the "reference rate." It could help a country's authorities manage its exchange rate to avoid large misalignments, assist the private sector in forming more dependable expectations of future exchange rates and thus to manage their businesses more efficiently in a world of floating exchange rates, and aid the International Monetary Fund in designing and managing an effective system of multilateral surveillance. The world economy would function better as a result, with less chance of the global imbalances leading to a world recession.
- Cover
- Contents
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Chapter 1 Introduction
- Chapter 2 The Reference Rate Proposal
- Operation of the Proposal
- Free Floating
- Leaning Against the Wind
- Chapter 3 Advantages and Disadvantages of a Reference Rate System
- Exchange Rate Management
- Private-Sector Expectations
- Multilateral Surveillance
- Inflation Targeting
- No Impact
- Chapter 4 Three Alternative Variants of the Reference Rate Proposal
- The Three Versions of the Proposal
- Evaluating the Three Proposals
- Chapter 5 Selecting and Agreeing on a Set of Reference Rates
- Chapter 6 Publication
- Chapter 7 Hypothetical History
- Japan in the 1990s
- Thailand Before 1997
- Indonesia in 1997
- Russia in 1998
- Brazil
- Turkey
- Argentina
- The Current Global Imbalances
- Chapter 8 Conclusion
- References
- Index
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