This book addresses the process and actions for developing enhanced capabilities to analyze energy policy issues and perform strategic planning activities at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) on an ongoing basis.
Within the broader context of useful analytical and modeling capabilities within and outside the DOE, this volume examines the requirements that a National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) should fulfill, presents an overall architecture for a NEMS, identifies data needs, and outlines priority actions for timely implementation of the system.
- The National Energy Modeling System
- Copyright
- DEDICATION
- Contents
- Acknowledgments
- Executive Summary
- PRINCIPAL FINDINGS
- PRINCIPAL RECOMMENDATIONS
- Timing of NEMS Development
- NEMS Management
- NEMS Design
- 1 INTRODUCTION
- STUDY GENESIS AND BACKGROUND
- SCOPE OF THE STUDY
- ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT
- 2 NEMS REQUIREMENTS
- THE ROLE OF MODELS IN POLICY ANALYSIS AND PLANNING
- Energy Policy-Related Models
- General Approaches To Modeling
- The Benefits of Models
- The Limitations of Models
- THE MISSION AND FUNCTIONS OF DOE AND EIA
- Strategic Analysis
- Data Collection and Information Dissemination
- R&D Program Planning
- Current Modeling Capabilities Within DOE and EIA
- NEMS IN THE BROAD CONTEXT OF POLICY ANALYSIS
- Keeping NEMS Outward Looking
- Capabilities Outside DOE
- THE NATIONAL ENERGY STRATEGY EXPERIENCE
- Overview of the NES Exercise
- Committee View of the NES Analysis
- DIRECTIONS IN ENERGY MODELING
- General Trends
- Quantification of Uncertainty
- Long-Term Forecasting
- NEMS REQUIREMENTS
- FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
- 3 NEMS ARCHITECTURE
- OVERVIEW
- MODULAR ARCHITECTURE
- Advantages of Modular Systems
- Disadvantages of Modular Systems
- INTEGRATING MODEL OPERATION
- PROPOSED MODULES
- The Control Module
- Fossil Fuel Supply Modules
- Energy Conversion Modules
- Renewable Energy Conversion Modules
- The International Energy Module
- The Interindustry Growth Model
- Energy Demand Modules
- Behavioral Information Requirements
- Sectoral Information Needs
- Information Needs for Policy Analysis
- Quality and Timeliness of Data and Information
- Reduced-Form Modules
- Satellite Modules
- Energy Security
- The Environmental Module
- Report Writers
- NEMS COMPARED TO CURRENT DOE MODELING
- NEMS TREATMENT OF CONCEPTUAL ISSUES
- Market Disequilibrium
- Uncertainty
- Contingent Strategies
- The Formation of Expectations
- Environmental Constraints
- OPERATIONAL ISSUES FOR NEMS DEVELOPMENT
- RECOMMENDATIONS
- 4 IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NEMS
- LEAD ORGANIZATION FOR THE NEMS
- SUGGESTIONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
- EMPLOYEE ENVIRONMENT
- MANAGEMENT OF NEMS DEVELOPMENT
- MOTIVATION AND USEFULNESS
- RECOMMENDATIONS
- APPENDIX A-1 SCOPE OF WORK
- THE PROBLEM
- ANALYSIS OF THE PROBLEM
- PROPOSED EFFORT
- First Part of Review
- Second Part of Review
- ANTICIPATED RESULTS
- REPORTING
- APPENDIX A-2 COMMITTEE CHARGE
- APPENDIX B FIRST ADVISORY REPORT
- COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL ENERGY MODELING SYSTEM
- I. INTRODUCTION
- II. FINDINGS
- A. Background
- B. General Observations
- C. Specific Comments
- 1. Long-Run Modeling and Forecasting
- 2. The FOSSIL2 Model
- 3. Adequacy of Data
- 4. Dealing with Uncertainty
- III. CONCLUDING REMARKS
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
- APPENDIX C THE MISSION AND FUNCTIONS OF THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
- ESTABLISHMENT OF THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
- THE SECRETARY OF ENERGY AS CABINET SPOKESMAN
- THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY AS STRATEGIC PLANNER
- THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY'S INFORMATION ROLE
- THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY AS R&D MANAGER
- APPENDIX D ILLUSTRATIVE CASE STUDIES
- CASE STUDY 1: AUTOMOBILE EFFICIENCY STANDARDS
- Establishing the Need for Policy Intervention
- Analytical Requirements
- CASE STUDY 2: NATURAL GAS PIPELINE CERTIFICATION
- Establishing the Need for Policy Intervention
- Analytical Requirements
- The Role of Analysis
- CASE STUDY 3: MAGLEV R&D
- Establishing the Need for Policy Intervention
- Analytical Requirements
- The Analytic Process and the Use of NEMS
- The Role of Analysis
- SUMMARY
- APPENDIX E A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DOE AND EIA MODELS
- PROJECT INDEPENDENCE EVALUATION SYSTEM
- INTERMEDIATE FUTURE FORECASTING SYSTEM
- LONG-TERM ENERGY ANALYSIS PROGRAM
- SHORT-TERM INTEGRATED FORECASTING SYSTEM
- FOSSIL2
- APPENDIX F MEETINGS AND ACTIVITIES
- JULY 31 & AUGUST 1, 1990
- SEPTEMBER 20 & 21, 1990
- NOVEMBER 6, 1990
- NOVEMBER 8 AND 9, 1990
- JANUARY 17 AND 18, 1991
- FEBRUARY 28 AND MARCH 1, 1991
- APRIL 18 AND 19, 1991
- JUNE 6 AND 7, 1991
- JULY 15 AND 17, 1991
- JULY 25 AND 26, 1991
- OCTOBER 4, 1991
- REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY
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